Showing posts with label U.S.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label U.S.. Show all posts

Wednesday, 2 December 2015

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS: HOUSING DATA, LATEST 6 MONTHS

Data seasonally adjusted except actual, which is not seasonaly adjusted.
Median and average prices for existing and single family homes in dollars.
Housing construction and homes sold in 1,000 units. R = revised.
(*) data reflect the increase in the universe of permits-issuing places
    from 19,000 to 20,000 places.      tbr = To Be Released.

HOUSING CONSTRUCTIO    Oct       Sep       Aug       Jul       Jun       May
 Housing Starts       1,060 :   1,191R:   1,116R:   1,152 :   1,211 :   1,072
     % change         -11.0 :     6.7R:    -3.1R:    -4.9 :    13.0 :    -9.9
    Actual (NSA)       90.2 :   110.0R:    99.2R:   107.2 :   112.3 :    99.6
     % change         -18.0 :    10.9R:    -7.5R:    -4.5 :    12.8 :    -8.2
 Permits Issued(*)    1,150 :   1,105 :   1,161 :   1,130 :   1,337 :   1,250
     % change           4.1 :    -4.8 :     2.7 :   -15.5 :     7.0 :     9.6
    Actual (NSA)       97.1 :    97.2 :    97.2 :   102.0 :   134.1 :   111.1
     % change          -0.1 :     0.0 :    -4.7 :   -23.9 :    20.7 :     6.0
 Units Completed        965 :   1,027R:     959R:     995 :     959 :   1,010
     % change          -6.0 :     7.1R:    -3.6R:     3.8 :    -5.0 :     1.1
    Actual (NSA)       87.7 :    93.6R:    92.1R:    86.3 :    85.4 :    83.9
     % change          -6.3 :     1.6R:     6.7R:     1.1 :     1.8 :     8.8
 Under Constr           938 :     930R:     917R:     906 :     891 :     877
     % change           0.9 :     1.4R:     1.2R:     1.7 :     1.6 :     1.2
    Actual (NSA)      947.3     948.2R:   932.6R:   926.8 :   908.5 :   885.9
     % change          -0.1 :     1.7R:     0.6R:     2.0 :     2.6 :     2.3

EXISTING HOME SALES     Oct       Sep       Aug       Jul       Jun       May
 Total Homes Sold     5,360 :   5,550R:   5,300 :   5,580 :   5,480 :   5,320
     % change          -3.4 :     4.7R:    -5.0 :     1.8 :     3.0 :     4.5
  Median Prices       219.6 :   221.7R:   228.5 :   231.8 :   236.3 :   228.9
  Average Prices      262.8 :   265.1R:   271.3 :   275.9 :   280.2 :   273.0
 S/F Homes Sold       4,750 :   4,930R:   4,680 :   4,950 :   4,830 :   4,710
     % change          -3.7 :     5.3R:    -5.5 :     2.5 :     2.5 :     5.1
  Median Prices       221.2 :   223.3R:   230.0 :   233.4 :   237.9 :   230.5
  Average Prices      263.7 :   266.0R:   272.1 :   277.1 :   281.3 :   273.9

NEW S/F HOMES           Oct       Sep       Aug       Jul       Jun       May
 Homes Sold             495 :     447 :     513R:     500R:     469R:     513
     % change          10.7 :   -12.9 :     2.6R:     6.6R:    -8.6R:     1.0
    Actual (NSA)         41 :      34 :      42R:      43R:      44R:      47
     % change          20.6 :   -19.0 :    -2.3R:    -2.3R:    -6.4R:    -2.1
   Median Prices      281.5 :   307.8 :   294.6R:   296.0R:   289.2R:   287.4
   Average Prices     366.0 :   369.6 :   345.3R:   341.9R:   329.3R:   340.8

FHLB                    Oct       Sep       Aug       Jul       Jun       May
   ARM Index           3.89 :    3.93 :    3.99 :    4.02 :    3.85 :    3.75

Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com 

Tuesday, 1 December 2015

U.S. STOCKS INCH HIGHER NOVEMBER

By Saumya Vaishampayan And Julie Wernau

Health-care shares helped U.S. stock indexes edge higher on Wednesday, the last full trading day of the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 21 points, or 0.1%, to 17832. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%.

The U.S. stock market is closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and will close early on Friday.

Shares of Pfizer Inc. climbed 3.4% to $33.06, adding 7 points to the Dow as investors continued to digest the announcement that Pfizer and Allergan PLC had hatched a deal to combine in a $155 billion merger. Investors largely shrugged off news that Pfizer drug Lyrica had failed to reduce pain for sufferers of chronic nerve pain.

Consumer-discretionary stocks showed modest gains, up 0.3% as higher employment rates continued to translate into lackluster consumer spending.

"The data is relatively mixed," said Krishna Memani, chief investment officers at OppenheimerFunds. "I think people are happy that they have a job, but they are not happy enough or secure enough to go out and spend a lot."

Initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 260,000 in the week ended Nov. 21, the Labor Department said, a healthy signal for the labor market. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected 270,000 new claims. The report was released a day earlier than normal due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Separately, consumer spending rose just slightly in October while Americans stepped up their savings. Spending inched up 0.1% in October from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase in spending last month.

Dan Farley, regional investment strategist at U.S. Bank, which is overweight consumer discretionary stocks in relation to its benchmarks, said consumers may be spending less on retail but are spending more on "experiences," such as travel and home improvement.

"When you look forward to holiday sales, the data is murky," he said. "There's a lot of fire power there should the consumer want to turn around and spend."

The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 1.4%, retracing losses on Tuesday that followed reports that the Turkish military shot down a Russian jet fighter along the Syrian border.

Investors are looking past geopolitical tensions to focus on the prospect of further monetary stimulus--also known as quantitative easing, or QE--at the European Central Bank's meeting next week. Loose monetary policy has boosted stocks around the world in recent years.

"There is a strong likelihood the ECB is going to expand the QE package" and cut interest rates further, said Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, adding this should boost European stocks heading into year-end.

At the same time, investors continued to parse economic data and speeches from policy makers for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade. Fed officials focus on employment and inflation data as they decide when to raise rates.

Inflation as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred gauge, remained below the central bank's 2% annual target for the 42nd month in a row.

Still, many investors say the U.S. economy has recovered enough for the central bank to begin lifting short-term rates.

"We continue to believe there's enough growth out there that we don't need emergency-level monetary policy," said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust, which manages $6.5 billion in assets.

Mr. Smith emphasized, however, that the central bank is likely to raise rates slowly, leaving monetary policy easy "for the foreseeable future." That's good for stocks, he added.

Mr. Smith said he bought shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron in September after a pullback in the energy sector. "Oil is not going to stay low forever," he added.

In commodity markets, U.S. crude-oil futures fell 0.8% to $42.52 a barrel. Gold prices fell 0.4% to $1,069.20 an ounce.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 2.237% from 2.243% on Tuesday. Yields fall as prices rise.

The euro fell against the dollar Wednesday on renewed expectations that quantitative easing could be more expansive. The euro was last at $1.0631, down 0.2% on the day. Easy-money policies tend to reduce the attractiveness of a currency to investors and boost government bonds prices.

Asian markets slipped slightly. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.4%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was 0.4% lower, but the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9%.

Write to Saumya Vaishampayan at saumya.vaishampayan@wsj.com and Julie Wernau at Julie.Wernau@wsj.com 

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Slips In November

By Anna Louie Sussman

U.S. consumer confidence slipped at the end of November, suggesting retailers could face a challenging holiday season.

The University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index for November fell to 91.3 from a midmonth reading of 93.1. It was an increase from October's final reading of 90.0. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted the final November index would edge down slightly to 93.0.

Consumer sentiment is still near the past six months' average of 91.6, but Americans' spending habits haven't matched their rosy outlook. After more than a year of low gas prices and steady job creation, many areas of the retail market remain lackluster.

Wages have been slow to rise, and prices of necessities like medical care and shelter are climbing, eating up larger shares of workers' paychecks. Consumer sentiment is also sensitive to market gyrations: a tumbling stock market pushed the index to a 2015 low of 87.2 in September after reaching 96.1 in June.

"The data indicate that consumers have become increasingly aware of economic cross currents in the domestic as well as the global economy," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist.

A report from the Commerce Department released Wednesday showed U.S. consumers ratcheted up savings rather than spending in October. The personal saving rate climbed to 5.6% in October, the highest level since December 2012.

The slight advance from October's final reading was entirely due to lower income households, Mr. Curtin said. Households at the higher end of the income spectrum are more exposed to financial markets.

"Households with incomes in the top third of the distribution, who account for more than half of all spending, expressed a more cautious optimism," he said, reflecting "somewhat weaker personal financial prospects."

Still, the reading of 91.3 was 2.8% higher from November a year ago.

The expected change in inflation rates edged back up to 2.7% from a midmonth reading of 2.5%, which had been the lowest reading since January. Consumers said they expect inflation of 2.6% over the next five years.

Another gauge of consumer sentiment compiled by The Conference Board plunged to its lowest level in more than a year, the private research group said Tuesday.

That dive, combined with a fall in the "future expectations" component of the University of Michigan index, could portend a downward trajectory for consumer sentiment going forward.

"We see some risks for the Michigan index to drift lower over the next few months as the rising geopolitical tensions and fallout from the terrorist Paris attacks sap domestic consumer confidence," said Millan Mulraine, an economist at TD Securities USA, in a note to clients.

Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of overall economic output in the U.S. Retailers hoping that continued low gasoline prices and a robust job market will unleash spending have so far been disappointed.

Another report released Tuesday by the Commerce Department showed that overall consumer spending increased at a 3% rate in the third quarter, down from the second quarter's 3.6% pace. The recent gain was led by strong spending on long-lasting goods, like automobiles.

U.S. retail sales barely edged up in October after stalling for two months, the Commerce Department reported earlier this month. Consumer spending at retailers climbed just 1.7% since October 2014, compared with a 4.7% annual increase the year before, even though Americans have enjoyed cheap gasoline for more than a year.

"If consumers are not happy and healthy out in the marketplace spending on goods and services, particularly in the key holiday spending season, there is very little hope for sustaining the current status quo, let alone optimism to anticipate additional momentum from the U.S. economy in the near-term," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Economics, in a note to clients.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s sales edged up slightly in the third quarter, but over half of its sales are groceries. Home Depot Inc. also had a strong third quarter, but retailers like Macy's Inc., Nordstrom Inc., and Dick's Sporting Goods reported weak third-quarter results.

The National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales will rise 3.7%, only slightly less than last year's 4.1% gain.

Write to Anna Louie Sussman at anna.sussman@wsj.com


U.S. DURABLE ORDERS CLIMB 3%

By Eric Morath

WASHINGTON--Orders for long-lasting goods rose in October, a gain that represents a big jump in the volatile aircraft category and a modest pickup elsewhere.

New orders for durable goods--refrigerators, combines and other products designed to last at least three years-- increased a seasonally adjusted 3% in October from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Through the first 10 months of the year, durable-goods orders were down 4.2% compared with the same period in 2014.

The trends "point to ongoing business-investment sluggishness as global headwinds and low oil prices continue to weigh on activity," said Gregory Daco, economist at Oxford Economics.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected overall orders to increase by 1.8% in October. September durable-goods orders were revised to a 0.8% decrease from the previously estimated drop of 1.2%.

Through the first 10 months of the year, durable-goods orders were down 4.2% compared with the same period in 2014. The downturn reflects curtailed demand due to low oil prices, a strong dollar and slow overseas growth.

In October, orders for nondefense aircraft rose 81% to bolster the overall reading. Boeing Co., the nation's largest aerospace firm, said orders for passenger jets doubled last month compared with September, on a nonseasonally adjusted basis.

Orders for motor vehicles and parts--which had been a bright spot among lackluster manufacturing figures this year--fell 2.9% in October.
Excluding transportation, durable-goods orders were up a more-modest 0.5% last month, though the gain was the best since June. Orders outside of transportation were down 2.7% through the first 10 months of the year.

Excluding defense, another volatile sector, durable orders were up 3.2% last month, but down 4% so far this year. Defense orders increased 1% in October.

A key measure of business investment rose in October. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft--a proxy for company spending on equipment--increased 1.3% in October. The figure was down 3.8% through the first 10 months of the year.

Business investment peaked in September 2014 but has since trended lower, in part reflecting a hefty drop in spending on oil- and gas-field machinery. Orders for railroad equipment, another category tied to oil and gas production, and farm equipment have also slumped this year.

A stronger U.S. dollar and weak overseas demand may have also constrained sales, but better demand this month might suggest the effect is fading. Orders for machinery and computers increased last month. The stronger dollar makes U.S. products more expensive abroad and foreign goods cheaper at home.

"Drag from imports and exports should begin to wane as 2016 progresses, but it will be better like hitting one's finger less frequently with a hammer is, rather than 'happy days are here again,'" said IHS Global Insight economist Michael Montgomery.

Other measures of manufacturing have been mixed recently. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers index barely remained in expansion territory last month. But the manufacturing component of the Federal Reserve's industrial production index increased 0.4% in October, the best gain since July.


Manufacturing represents a fairly small slice of the overall U.S. economy, but the category is closely watched for the signals it sends about broader demand. With the global economy uneven, U.S. factories need to sell products to domestic customers. In a potentially worrying sign, consumer spending slowed in October despite solid income gains, according to a separate Commerce report.